Die Discussion Paper Series der Wirtschaftswissenschaften an der JGU wurde am 1. Januar 2010 begonnen. Auf dieser Seite finden Sie die letzten 20 Dokumente in umgekehrter chronologischer Reihenfolge.
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- von Katharina Hartinger (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany),
Erik Sarrazin (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany),
David J. Streich (Catholic University Eichstätt-Ingolstadt)Digitalization in banking is leaving elderly clients at risk of losing access to financial services,but little is known about technology adoption at an advanced age. We develop and evaluate training interventions to foster internet banking adoption in a field experiment with more than 25,000 elderly clients of a large German savings bank, of whom we randomize 333 into training. Our administrative banking panel data allows us to account for selection on observables and assess the sustainability of treatment effects. After the interventions, the share of clients who use internet banking increases by 26 percentage points in the treatment group relative […]
- No. 2504: Premium Programs for Energy Conservation: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Experimentvon Andreas Gerster (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany), Manuel Frondel (RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Germany), Kathrin Kaestner (RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Germany), Michael Pahle (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany), Puja Singhal (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany)Premium programs are seen as a politically attractive substitute for Pigouvian taxes to establish incentives for energy conservation, particularly when energy prices are high. Using an incentive-compatible survey experiment with almost 4,500 participants, this paper analyzes consumers’ uptake of a savings premium paid when a household reaches a pre-defined energy conservation target. We find that the financial benefit of a savings premium motivates only 11 percent of households to opt for it. 42 percent of households never take part, irrespective of generous premium payments of up to 1,500 euros. The remaining households prefer the conditional payment under the premium program […]
- von Salvatore Barbaro (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany),
Reyn van Ewijk (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany),
Julia M. Rode (Deutsche Bundesbank, Germany)The COVID-19 pandemic presented governments with unprecedented challenges, requiring decisions that balanced public health measures against substantial social and economic impacts. This study examines the strategic and opportunistic behaviors of regional officials in Germany during the pandemic. Using a comprehensive empirical analysis based on hundreds of statements from state incumbents, we shed light on the dynamics of state level political behavior.
- von Laura Lüke (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany),
André Hessenius (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany),
Stefan Irnich (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany)We present a new approach of solving the single picker routing problem with scattered storage (SPRP-SS), which is a fundamental problem in modern warehouse operations management. The SPRP-SS assumes that SKUs of articles are stored at possibly many locations. An effective integer programming based approach relies on extending the state space of Ratliff and Rosenthal’s dynamic program for the basic single picker routing problem to accommodate the SPRP-SS. As a result, the mixed integer linear programming (MIP) formulation has a quadratic number of variables. We propose two modifications of the extended state space to retain the linearity of the models. […]
- von Salvatore Barbaro (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany),
Anna-Sophie Kurella (University of Mannheim, Germany)The Condorcet paradox has been a significant focus of investigation since Kenneth Arrow rediscovered its importance for economic theory. Recent research on this phenomenon has oscillated between simulation studies, probability calculations based on hypothetical voter preferences, and empirical analyses often limited by unsatisfactory data. This paper presents the first comprehensive evaluation of 253 electoral polls conducted across 59 countries. Our findings demonstrate that the Condorcet paradox has virtually no empirical relevance: with only one exception, we find no evidence of cyclical majorities in any of the 253 elections. This result remains robust after statistical inference testing. Furthermore, this study provides […]
- von Alexander Dzionara (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany),
Niklas M. Witzig (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany)In many economic contexts, people need to solve trade-offs between doing an activity (e.g., solving a task) faster and doing it better. While time choices in speed-accuracy trade-offs have been extensively studied in cognitive science for motor-response and perception tasks, little evidence is available for more deliberate economic decision-making, where people’s choices often fail to maximize payoffs. Conversely, the impact of behavioral biases – key explanans of said failure – on time choices has yet to be explored. We present a theoretical model linking time choices in speed-accuracy trade-offs to an agent’s abilities, subjective beliefs and uncertainty attitudes. We test […]
- von Niklas M. Witzig (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany)I study altruistic choices through the lens of a cognitively noisy decision-maker. I introduce a theoretical framework that demonstrates how increased cognitive noise can directionally affect altruistic decisions and put its implications to the test: In a laboratory experiment, participants make a series of binary choices between taking and giving monetary payments. In the treatment, to-be-calculated math sums replace straightforward monetary payments, increasing the cognitive difficulty of choosing. The Treatment group exhibits a lower sensitivity towards changes in payments and decides significantly more often in favor of the other person, i.e., is more altruistic. I explore the origins of this […]
- von Nils D. Steiner (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany),
Sven Hillen (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany)This contribution studies voting intentions for the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) from a policy-space perspective. What makes the new German party special is its unusual bundling of economically left-wing with culturally right-wing positions. We turn to survey data from March 2024 (GLES Tracking T57) to assess how this bundling is reflected in the positions of their supporters. Distinguishing between an economic policy dimension, a transnational dimension and a traditional morality dimension, we find that the probability of intending to vote for the BSW increases with more left-wing economic positions and with more nationalist positions. Conservative positions on traditional morality are […]
- von Dominik Sobania (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany),
Justyna Petke (University College London, United Kingdom),
Martin Briesch (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany),
Franz Rothlauf (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany)Large language models have recently become known for their ability to generate computer programs, especially through tools such as GitHub Copilot, a domain where genetic programming has been very successful so far. Although they require different inputs (free-text vs. input/output examples) their goal is the same – program synthesis. Therefore, in this work we compare how well GitHub Copilot and genetic programming perform on common program synthesis benchmark problems. We study the structure and diversity of the generated programs by using well-known software metrics. We find that GitHub Copilot and genetic programming solve a similar number of benchmark problems (85.2% […]
- von Salvatore Barbaro (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany),
Anna-Sophie Kurella (University of Mannheim, Germany),
Maike Roth (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany)One of the primary goals of the social sciences is to understand the factors influencing fluctuations in support for political parties. However, the relationship between electoral outcomes and electorate preferences can be tenuous. The aggregation function’s impact on translating voters’ preferences into outcomes can vary significantly. Conversely, electoral outcomes may not accurately reflect how voters perceive winning or losing parties. Through an empirical case study, we examine short and long-term data. Our analysis reveals several key findings: Firstly, applying different electoral methods yields significantly divergent outcomes. Secondly, electoral trends do not necessarily align with voters’ perceptions of the respective parties […]
- von Salvatore Barbaro (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany)Research from various disciplines has addressed the relationships between electoral systems and political polarization. The results are inconclusive. This paper systematically examines how different electoral systems either promote political polarization or render it unattractive for candidates to distinguish themselves through polarization. We assume a polarized electorate and investigate Condorcet-consistent voting procedures as well as scoring rules, both single and two-staged.
- von Anna-Sophie Kurella (University of Mannheim, Germany),
Salvatore Barbaro (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany)Western democracies are grappling with escalating political polarization. While scholars have explored various societal and economic factors contributing to this phenomenon, the influence of the electoral system has received limited attention. In this paper, we argue that the use of the proportional representation system (PR), a common electoral approach, contributes to the rise in polarization. PR systems prioritize voters’ top preferences, allowing candidates to increase their electoral support even as the proportion of citizens strongly opposed to them grows.
- von Guenter W. Beck (University of Siegen, Germany),
Philipp Harms (Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Germany),
Muzammil Hussain (University of Siegen, Germany),
Mark Ruszel (Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Germany)In the second half of 2016, the United Kingdom experienced a strong increase of retail prices which was caused, among other factors, by a massive depreciation of the British pound in the wake of the Brexit vote. In this paper, we analyze the distributional effects of this inflationary episode, examining in particular the role that households’ decisions to adjust their consumption behavior at the extensive margin within narrowly defined products have played in this context. Using a very granular scanner data set on purchases of fast-moving consumer goods, we demonstrate that households at an intermediate income level engaged in product-downgrading, […]
- von Eva M. Berger (Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs),
Ernst Fehr (University of Zurich),
Henning Hermes (Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf),
Daniel Schunk (Johannes Gutenberg University),
Kirsten Winkel (University of Koblenz)Working memory (WM) capacity is a key component of a wide range of cognitive and noncognitive skills, such as fluid IQ, math, reading, or inhibitory control – but can WM training improve these skills? Here, we examine the causal impact of WM training embedded in regular school teaching based on a randomized educational intervention with 6–7y old children. We find substantial gains in WM capacity, and document positive spillover effects on geometry, fluid IQ, and inhibitory control. Three years later, treated children are 16 percentage points more likely to enter an advanced secondary school track.
- von Claudia Landwehr (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz),
Armin Schäfer (Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Germany)In the face of mounting evidence for the substantive under-representation of marginalized groups and for the lack of responsiveness to their concerns in democratic legislation, calls for measures to improve descriptive representation have become louder. While better descriptive representation may be in the interest of a majority of citizens, the implementation of respective measures is eventually down to political elites. We therefore ask what legislators in the United States and Germany think about the importance of descriptive representation. Leveraging data from new surveys in both countries, we analyze respondents’ views on descriptive representation concerning gender, age, class, ethnicity, and sexual […]
- von Patrick Arni (University of Bristol, United Kingdom),
Pether H. Egger (ETH Zurich, Switzerland),
Katharina Erhardt (University of Düsseldorf, Germany),
Matthias Gubler (SNB, Switzerland),
Philip Sauré (Johannes Gutenberg University)This paper identifies the causal effects of trade shocks on worker outcomes. We exploit a unique setting based on three pillars: (i) a large, unanticipated appreciation of the Swiss franc in 2015, (ii) detailed data with firm-level exposure to trade via output markets (both domestic and foreign) and imported inputs (distinguished by their foreign labor content), which we match to (iii) worker-level panel data with rich information on labor-market outcomes. We find that increased competition in output markets induces negative effects on earnings for workers of affected firms. Conversely, a price drop of foreign inputs generates positive effects for workers […]
- von Philipp Harms (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)This is the manuscript of a keynote speech which I gave in October 2023 at a conference that celebrated 30 years of the Polish-German Academic Forum at the
- von Johannes Carow (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)Since the seminal work from Bertrand & Schoar (2003), the separate estimation of person effects and firm effects remains a widely used method in the analysis of firm-level dependent variables. Recently, this class of models has experienced serious methodological criticism, stating that person effects only reflect spurious variation. Rather than rejecting this estimation technique per se, I recommend a strategy based on simulation analysis to test for the presence of person effects. This strategy takes limitations of a previous test for idiosyncratic person effects into account. Further, I show that the estimation of person effects is subject to attenuation bias […]
- von Johannes Carow (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz),
Niklas M. Witzig (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)We study the impact of time pressure on strategic risk-taking of professional chess players.
- von Nils D. Steiner (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz),
Claudia Landwehr (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz),
Philipp Harms (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz)A well-established finding from social psychology is that people tend to hold “false consensus beliefs”, that is, they regularly overestimate how many others agree with their own opinions. The consequences of such beliefs for how citizens assess democratic legitimacy have been left largely unexplored, however. We reason that false consensus beliefs may give citizens the erroneous impression that their political preferences are shared by most fellow citizens while political elites fail to follow this apparent will of the majority. False consensus beliefs might therefore play a central role in the development of populist attitudes to politics. Using original panel survey […]
